GM Futures Conviction Theory · First Edition · July 2026
Theory of full-distribution, time-bound conviction
GM Futures Conviction Theory is the conceptual foundation for calibrated long–short conviction. It is not an index, feed, strategy, or commercial product. The live GM! Index, the DFY GM! Oracle, and fixed-fee services are applications of that foundation.
- GM Futures Conviction Theory — cells, lattice grammar, hurdle-net Omega triad, and confidence.
- GM! Index — published conviction-distribution lattice on production feed profiles.
- DFY GM! Oracle — agent discovery, x402/MCP delivery, and Virtuals ACP storefront.
- Fixed-fee services — atomic and provisioned access; USDC on Base; no percentage fees or fund transfer.
What a cell asserts
A conviction cell is keyed by instrument, granularity, and horizon. The primary score runs from 0.0 (maximum short) to 1.0 (maximum long), with a confidence stamp. An additive hurdle-net Omega triad (mass, direction, ΔΩ) and θ stamps sit beside the primary score so consumers can read magnitude and direction without collapsing the distribution into a point forecast.
Three-layer separation
- Index — the published lattice and cell values (public product surface).
- Validation benchmark — feed-quality gates that separate construction fitness from trader PnL.
- Reference utilization — simulated or research uses of the lattice; not investment advice and not a managed book.
Compliance
Non-custodial data and index access. Not selling options or futures. Not holding customer assets. Not investment advice. Tier-C construction remains bearer-gated; public talk stays at conviction, lattice, weights, omega book, hazard, and desk posture/journal.
Empirical Omega/ML antecedent — not the GM! Theory treatise. The GM! Index Prospectus is the index methodology and product contract — revised separately from this theory treatise.